Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price23.70 USD
Fair value19.23
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution25.00-5.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup22.30+6.3% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. holds its Accumulation at $23.70. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$23.70
Valuation
13.67 trailing · 5.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: insurance
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
8.12%
Below 5%
8.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ARZGY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $19.23 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 5.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.9% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $19.23, with a range of $19.23 to $47.40, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer looks cheap yet fails ethics test
Picture a Milan pensioner paying premiums into a policy that quietly funds activities most people would rather not back. Generali sits in that spot. The shares trade at 6 times forward earnings with a 14 percent return on equity, yet our fair value sits well below the current price and the ethical screen blocks any further look.
We pass for the clearest reason available. The business activity failure on the screen outweighs the moderate moat and the thin 7 percent profit margin. One analyst target at 20 dollars already sits below the market price, so the apparent bargain carries no margin of safety.
A low multiple on an insurer can simply mark the top of the cycle rather than an entry point. Currency moves, regulatory shifts and the ethical red flag all sit on the same side of the ledger. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARZGY trades on PNK. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Distribution$23.75+1.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-13Distribution$23.33-6.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-09-24Markup$26.25+5.3%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-08-22Markup$24.94+3.6%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-21Markup$24.08+8.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Markup$22.30+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-17Markup$22.30+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Markup$22.30+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$22.30Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.