Earnings Preview · 29 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $1.51 a share on revenue near $5.3B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $5.86 of earnings per share against $4.85 over the last twelve, growth of about 21%. The median analyst target is $71 (range $58 to $82), 4% below the $74.09 share price, across 11 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +1.4% in the five sessions after the print and +5.7% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +4.6%; after a miss, +7.9%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
Levels that matter
At $74.09 the shares sit 4% below the 52-week high of $77.06 and 35% above the low of $54.70 (87% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $69.52, below the price. The 200-day average is $65.79, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (+10% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $82.00 against the current share price of $74.09. The shares trade at 15.2 times trailing earnings and 12.6 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 1% with net margins near 39%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.18, five-day price change -1.1%, as of 2026-10-23, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
