Earnings Preview · 30 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $3.43 a share on revenue near $706M. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $15.18 of earnings per share against $13.19 over the last twelve, growth of about 15%. The median analyst target is $320 (range $288 to $358), 1% below the $322.52 share price, across 15 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.2% in the five sessions after the print and +0.7% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +0.3%; after a miss, +4.0%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
Levels that matter
At $322.52 the shares sit 13% below the 52-week high of $371.18 and 42% above the low of $227.15 (66% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $291.14, below the price. The 200-day average is $287.18, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 18% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $273.89 against the current share price of $322.52. The shares trade at 23.4 times trailing earnings and 20.3 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 23% with net margins near 27%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.15, five-day price change +0.5%, as of 2026-10-28, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
