An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the marketing and distribution of food and food-related products in North America.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $107.25
Performance Food Group Company holds its Markup at $107.25.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-14
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price
$107.25
Valuation
46.83 trailing · 18.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.91
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$107.25
46.83 P/E · 18.78 fwd
Our fair value
$122.10
14% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$130.00
+21% to current
Target low $72.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $143.00
▲ current $107.25 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$107.25
you are here
Conservative
$85.64
-20%
Analyst avg
$130.00
+21%
Our fair value
$122.10
+14%
Analyst high
$143.00
+33%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
7.30%
Profit margin
0.56%
Debt to equity
158.85
Analyst consensus
Buy · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 44.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 16.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Trucks that restock every diner run thin margins
Picture the lorries that keep restaurant kitchens and corner shops stocked across North America. Performance Food Group moves the beef, poultry and packaged goods that make those meals possible, yet it earns just a 1% profit margin and a 7% return on equity.
The shares sit only 9% below our fair value with revenue growing 6% and a forward multiple of 19.6 times earnings. A narrow moat and modest returns leave little room for outperformance, so the name earns no opportunity rating despite clearing our ethical screen.
Food distribution stays exposed to inflation swings, fuel costs and customer concentration that can squeeze already slim profits. Consensus targets sit higher, but the numbers show a business priced for steady rather than superior results.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119. Entered 2026-08-08 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-08Markup$115.53+19.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-07-18Markup$97.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $119.
2026-07-03Markup$97.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$97.12Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming PFGC
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
2026-04-09
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
Sale
15K–50K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$94.07
+7.1%
·
$1,071
+7.1%
2 months
$89.00
+13.2%
·
$1,132
+13.2%
3 months
$87.22
+15.5%
·
$1,155
+15.5%
6 months
$94.44
+6.7%
·
$1,067
+6.7%
1 year
$87.69
+14.9%
·
$1,149
+14.9%
2 years
$68.66
+46.7%
·
$1,467
+46.7%
3 years
$55.21
+82.5%
·
$1,825
+82.5%
5 years
$52.52
+91.8%
·
$1,918
+91.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PFGC does next, these words stay.
Performance Food Group Company · PFGC · Markup · $107.25
Recorded 2026-08-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically