An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · BWX Technologies, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $169.67
BWX Technologies Inc holds its Markdown at $169.67.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 167 days
Price
$169.67
Valuation
47.13 trailing · 32.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.74
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$169.67
47.13 P/E · 32.67 fwd
Our fair value
$168.19
1% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$232.50
+37% to current
Target low $200.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $290.00
▲ current $169.67 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$169.67
you are here
Conservative
$168.19
-1%
Analyst avg
$232.50
+37%
Our fair value
$168.19
-1%
Analyst high
$290.00
+71%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
26.10%
Profit margin
10.21%
Debt to equity
157.62
Analyst consensus
Buy · 14 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its excluded industry: aerospace & defense. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityExcluded industry: Aerospace & DefenseFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Nuclear parts maker fails ethical screen outright
Picture a firm turning out reactor parts for navy submarines and power plants. The work looks steady and the numbers back it up, with revenue climbing 26 percent and return on equity hitting 29 percent. Yet the business sits squarely in aerospace and defence, which knocks it out on our ethical screen before any numbers get a look in.
We pass for that single reason. Forward earnings sit at 33 times, the margin of safety is already negative at the current price, and the moat is only narrow. Strong growth and a buy-rated analyst crowd do not change the fact that this name is excluded on principle.
The main risks are valuation that leaves little room for error and exposure to government budgets that can shift with politics. A narrow moat also means competition could chip away at those margins over time. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $238. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markdown$171.18-11.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $238.
2026-07-18Markdown$193.45+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $238.
2026-07-03Markdown$193.45+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$193.45Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$210.52
-12.5%
$0.27
$876
-12.4%
2 months
$229.26
-19.6%
$0.27
$805
-19.5%
3 months
$197.56
-6.7%
$0.27
$934
-6.6%
6 months
$182.88
+0.7%
$0.54
$1,010
+1.0%
1 year
$130.98
+40.7%
$1.04
$1,415
+41.5%
2 years
$87.76
+109.9%
$2.02
$2,122
+112.2%
3 years
$63.24
+191.3%
$2.96
$2,960
+196.0%
5 years
$60.49
+204.6%
$4.72
$3,124
+212.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BWXT does next, these words stay.
BWX Technologies Inc · BWXT · Markdown · $169.67
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
