Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.19, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price162.45 USD
Fair value290.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup179.58-9.5% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-14Read Markdown169.96-4.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with deal news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Distribution167.10-2.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 20% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-30Read Markup209.70-22.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
FTAI Aviation Ltd holds its Markup at $162.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$162.45
Valuation
40.71 trailing · 13.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.57
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
FTAI Aviation does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FTAI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 38% discount to our $290.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 46.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 44.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $290.00, with a range of $225.00 to $337.50, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aviation lessor with eye-watering returns we skip
Picture a cargo plane landing in Dubai with engines leased from FTAI. The firm is posting 66% revenue growth, a 19% profit margin and a 233% ROE while trading at 16.3 times forward earnings. Those figures make the business look formidable on paper.
We pass regardless. The ethical screen rules out aerospace and defence holdings outright, so the narrow moat, strong buy consensus and 46% gap to our fair value never come into play. This is exactly what the screen is for.
The valuation multiple could compress quickly if defence budgets shift or if aircraft demand cools. Currency moves and heavy debt in the leasing book add further volatility. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FTAI trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$179.58+16.3%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351.
2026-10-29Markdown$154.37-6.1%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$164.46+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$164.46-3.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
