Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
FTAI Aviation Ltd holds its Distribution at $185.25. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$185.25
Valuation
40.45 trailing · 15.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 59.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +89% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aviation lessor with eye-watering returns we skip
Picture a cargo plane landing in Dubai with engines leased from FTAI. The firm is posting 66% revenue growth, a 19% profit margin and a 233% ROE while trading at 16.3 times forward earnings. Those figures make the business look formidable on paper.
We pass regardless. The ethical screen rules out aerospace and defence holdings outright, so the narrow moat, strong buy consensus and 46% gap to our fair value never come into play. This is exactly what the screen is for.
The valuation multiple could compress quickly if defence budgets shift or if aircraft demand cools. Currency moves and heavy debt in the leasing book add further volatility. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FTAI trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup · changed$209.70-2.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351.
2026-07-18Markup$234.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 86%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $351.
2026-07-03Markup$234.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$234.05Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
