TXT · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $13.7B · 34,000 employees
Textron Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
79.89 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Textron holds its Markdown at $79.89. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$79.89
Valuation
15.05 trailing · 11.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Divest List
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by AFSC divest list for manufacturing military aircraft, armored vehicles, and weapons systems supplied to conflict zones. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 44% discount to our $115.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 3.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 43.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Textron trips on defence work before numbers matter
Textron keeps Bell helicopters and Cessna jets moving through government and corporate hands every year. We pass because the business activity screen rules out any stake on ethical grounds, full stop.
Revenue climbs 12 percent yet the 6 percent profit margin and 12 percent ROE sit behind a narrow moat. The 12.6 times forward multiple and 26 percent gap to fair value cannot override that hard block.
Defence cycles add their own swings while 16 analysts still push a 100 dollar target. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TXT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $103.
2026-07-18Markup$91.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $103.
2026-07-03Markup$91.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$91.08Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
