Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.09, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price74.19 USD
Fair value87.37
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation73.40+1.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown76.87-3.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-27Read Accumulation76.26-2.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 32% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution57.80+28.4% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Embraer SAADR holds its Accumulation at $74.19. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$74.19
Valuation
30.57 trailing · 18.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Embraer does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $87.37 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 10.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $87.37, with a range of $72.00 to $100.47, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Jets for airlines and militaries alike
Think of Embraer as the Brazilian firm turning steel and software into regional jets and defence platforms that serve airlines and governments from Latin America to Asia. Revenue is rising 18 percent, the shares trade at 16.6 times forward earnings with a 23 percent gap to our fair value, and fifteen analysts call the stock a strong buy. None of that matters once the ethical screen lights up.
We pass because the company sits squarely inside aerospace and defence, an excluded industry under our rules. A narrow moat, 4 percent profit margins and 9 percent return on equity already signal limited pricing power and thin returns, yet the decisive line is the ethical one, not the valuation.
Brazil exposure adds currency and political swings that can erase any apparent margin of safety in a single quarter. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EMBJ trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-10-25Markdown$72.34+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-10-18Markdown$72.34-5.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$76.87+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-10-02Accumulation$76.87+0.8%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-27Distribution$64.09+10.9%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Distribution$57.80+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Distribution$57.80+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$57.80Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.