Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.10, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price72.51 USD
Fair value100.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation81.99-11.6% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-27Read Markup81.90-11.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-24Read Distribution81.90-11.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-08-30Read Markdown85.51-15.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 12% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Greif, Inc. holds its Distribution at $72.51. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$72.51
Valuation
34.71 trailing · 14.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.58%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Greif,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $100.00 fair value, 3.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $100.00, with a range of $85.10 to $141.83, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every box shipped still needs a maker
Picture the steel drum or plastic container holding chemicals or food ingredients on its way to a factory. Greif makes those, yet revenue sits flat and the market assigns it no edge worth chasing at the current price. With a forward multiple of 16.9 times and five analysts clustered on a hold rating around 75 dollars, the shares already reflect what modest stability the business shows.
The 24 percent profit margin looks solid on paper, but zero top-line growth in a cyclical packaging market leaves little room for surprise upside. Ethical screens clear the name, yet the unknown competitive position and the fact that the price sits close to consensus targets suggest the market is not mispricing anything material.
Cyclical earnings can look cheap on a middling multiple right before volumes turn, and flat revenue offers no cushion if input costs or customer destocking bite harder than expected. The modest gap to our fair value does not change the lack of any real catalyst. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GEF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$81.99+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$81.99+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$82.27+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$82.27+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$82.27+0.5%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$81.90+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup · changed$81.90+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-17Markdown$78.51-5.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
