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The Screen · Industrials · Metal Fabrication
ESAB Corporation
ESAB · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.2B · 10,300 employees
ESAB Corporation engages in the formulation, development, manufacture, and supply of consumable products and equipment for use in cutting, joining, automated welding, and gas control equipment.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.34, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price70.91 USD
Fair value87.94
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup66.89+6.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 27% slide in 17 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution91.57-22.6% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ESAB Corporation holds its Markup at $70.91. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$70.91
Valuation
20.84 trailing · 10.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
28.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 28.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.31%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
ESAB clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 28%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ESAB's ethical verdict changes
Today ESAB passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +72% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Welder's low multiple hides the usual cyclical warning
Picture a workshop floor where orders for welding kits surge when factories expand and dry up the moment construction slows. ESAB sits right in that flow, posting 10% revenue growth and a 7% profit margin at a forward multiple of 13.4 times. The numbers look reasonable next to a modest 8% margin of safety, yet the business is classic metal fabrication, exposed to the same boom and bust cycles that have tripped up peers before.
We pass because a low multiple in a cyclical sector is rarely the bargain it appears. Peak earnings can flatter the price while ROE at 11% offers little cushion when volumes turn. Analysts may cluster around a much higher target, but history shows these multiples expand only when the cycle is already rolling over.
Ethical checks clear without issue, yet the earnings volatility and unknown competitive edge keep any real margin of safety thin. Currency swings and distributor concentration add further lumps. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ESAB trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup · changed$66.89+1.9%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$65.63-1.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-10-14Distribution$66.85-0.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-10-02Distribution$67.01-15.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 15.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-08-28Distribution$78.99-12.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-27Distribution$89.78-2.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Distribution$91.57+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$91.57+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$91.57Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
