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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
O’Reilly Automotive
ORLY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $71.6B · 93,973 employees
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
89.92 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 16:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price89.92 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read accumulation
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.38)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 89.92 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 88.65, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.38, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price89.92 USD
Fair value88.65
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Accumulation88.50+1.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markup86.12+4.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Distribution90.33-0.5% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
O’Reilly Automotive holds its Accumulation at $89.92. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$89.92
Valuation
27.92 trailing · 24.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
51.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 51.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.53%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.04%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
O’Reilly Automotive's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 51% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when ORLY's ethical verdict changes
Today ORLY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $88.65 fair value estimate, 8.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto parts retailer stumbles on debt screen
Every time a car needs fresh brake pads or a new filter, O'Reilly sits behind the counter supplying the parts. Yet the business trips our ethical screen on debt levels and offers no compelling reason to look past that red flag.
We pass because the 23.8 times forward earnings multiple leaves scant margin of safety even with 10 percent revenue growth and 14 percent margins. The ethical failure on leverage outweighs any surface appeal from analyst targets.
High debt creates clear exposure in a cyclical auto sector where spending can slow sharply, and that combination keeps the name firmly in avoid territory.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORLY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$88.50+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$86.12+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
