Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
GDS Holdings Limited holds its Markdown at $31.06. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$31.06
Valuation
13.74 trailing · 887.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
568.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 568.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
179.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 179.1% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $25.47 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 6.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +63% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Data centre bets that stretch credibility
Picture a warehouse full of servers humming away in China, handling the cloud traffic that keeps apps and banks running. GDS looks like the pick and shovel provider for that boom, yet the numbers tell a different story. At over 4700 times forward earnings the market is already paying for decades of flawless execution that rarely arrives, and the ethical screen flags the heavy debt load as a clear fail.
Revenue is growing at 24 percent with a 23 percent profit margin, but return on equity sits at just 10 percent and the moat is rated weak. That combination leaves little room for error when competition from bigger global players is rising fast. Analysts may still cluster around a much higher target, yet the gap between price and our fair value already signals the market has got ahead of itself.
High debt adds real fragility in a sector where power costs and regulation can shift quickly. The setup leaves investors exposed to both execution slips and the ethical concerns we screen for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GDS trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-31Markdown$31.97-6.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-18Markdown$34.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-03Markdown$34.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$34.00Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
