Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
MaxLinear, Inc. holds its Distribution at $74.57. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$74.57
Valuation
N/A trailing · 28.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
3.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.72%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chip maker priced for growth it cannot keep
Picture a factory running flat out on one big order. When the order stops, the machines keep costing money. MaxLinear sits in that spot right now. Revenue is up 43 percent, yet the company reports a 26 percent profit margin and negative 28 percent return on equity. At 37.7 times forward earnings the shares trade well above our fair value of 38.05 dollars against a current price of 71.84 dollars, a 47 percent gap that leaves no margin of safety.
We pass because the numbers do not support the price. This is a cyclical semiconductor business where peak earnings often arrive just before demand falls away. A low multiple can signal a bargain, yet a high multiple on still-loss-making results simply signals hope. Analyst targets sit at 60 dollars, but history shows these cycles reset faster than forecasts adjust.
The ethical screen clears, which removes one usual objection. Currency swings, customer concentration and sudden inventory corrections remain live threats that could widen the gap between price and value further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MXL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Distribution$66.36-0.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 282% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 474%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 20.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 282% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 474%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markup$84.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 282% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 474%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markup$84.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$84.46Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
