An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $43.90
China Yuchai International Limited holds its Markup at $43.90.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days
Price
$43.90
Valuation
20.81 trailing · 11.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.42
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$43.90
20.81 P/E · 11.11 fwd
Our fair value
$76.06
73% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$65.17
+48% to current
Target low $45.82Analyst target rangeTarget high $80.39
▲ current $43.90 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$43.90
you are here
Conservative
$65.22
+49%
Analyst avg
$65.17
+48%
Our fair value
$76.06
+73%
Analyst high
$80.39
+83%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
23.00%
Profit margin
2.18%
Debt to equity
16.27
Analyst consensus
None · 4 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 95.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 357.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Chinese engine maker trips on debt and ethics
Every truck that rumbles across a Chinese road or generator that fires up in a blackout relies on heavy diesel power. Yuchai sits in that supply chain, showing 23% revenue growth and trading at 11.1 times forward earnings against a stated fair value well above the current price. Yet the business carries a weak moat, single-digit returns on equity and wafer-thin 2% profit margins, which together suggest the low multiple reflects more than simple undervaluation.
We pass. The ethical screen flags excessive debt, and the company is a classic cyclical that often prints peak earnings just as multiples compress. A 73% margin of safety on paper does not offset either issue when earnings are tied to construction and transport cycles that turn quickly.
Risk sits in leverage and thin profitability that leave little room for downturns or rising interest costs. The combination keeps the name off limits regardless of headline growth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in CYD's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CYD trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 22.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 154%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 51%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. Entered 2026-07-26 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-26Markup$43.90-22.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 22.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 154%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 51%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-18Markup$56.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 154%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 51%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-03Markup$56.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$56.76Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$47.46
+0.9%
·
$1,009
+0.9%
2 months
$42.78
+11.9%
·
$1,119
+11.9%
3 months
$42.09
+13.8%
·
$1,138
+13.8%
6 months
$35.78
+33.9%
·
$1,339
+33.9%
1 year
$18.87
+153.8%
$0.53
$2,566
+156.6%
2 years
$8.25
+480.4%
$0.91
$5,915
+491.5%
3 years
$8.82
+442.8%
$1.19
$5,563
+456.3%
5 years
$13.54
+253.7%
$3.29
$3,780
+278.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CYD does next, these words stay.
China Yuchai International Limited · CYD · Markup · $43.90
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
