The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
CME Group CME
Outside both standards
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide.
read at $255.31
CME Group holds its Distribution at $255.31.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · insiders bought, latest filing 2026-06-25
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days |
| Price | $255.31 |
| Valuation | 21.78 trailing · 19.73 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.28 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $240.04 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
| Revenue growth | 1.00% |
| Profit margin | 63.43% |
| Debt to equity | 12.91 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 15 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Business activity: Financials sector Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
CME clears trades but fails ethics test
Every futures bet on crops, rates or energy clears through CME's exchange, giving it a steady slice of global trading flows. We pass because the business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds. That screen exists to keep certain models out, regardless of how the numbers read on paper.
Revenue rises 14% while the profit margin hits 63% and return on equity reaches 16%. The forward multiple sits at 19 times and price trades above our fair value of 238.86 dollars, leaving a negative margin of safety. A moderate moat offers some durability yet does not offset the ethical block.
Fifteen analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target near 285 dollars. We still step aside. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 19.7x expensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 21.8x a premium valuation |
| Revenue growth | 1.0% slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 63.4% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Return on equity | 15.8% a solid return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 0.13 minimal debt — a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.02 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.28 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $92.2B |
| Employees | 3,875 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on CME
- › Q1 Earnings Highlights: CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) Vs The Rest Of The Financial Exchanges & Data Stocks StockStory · 16d ago
- › What's in the Cards for CME Group This Earnings Season? Zacks · 16d ago
- › The $5.25 billion ETF paying dividends that grew three years straight right now 24/7 Wall St. · 16d ago
- › Nasdaq (NDAQ) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth Zacks · 17d ago
- › NDAQ Stock Rises 1.6% in a Year: A Signal for Investors to Hold Tight? Zacks · 17d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in CME's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CME trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Shepard William R | Dir | Purchase | 339 | $0 |
| 2026-05-18 | PIELL HILDA HARRIS | Officer | 5,753 | $1,752,536 | |
| 2026-05-15 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | Chief Executive Officer | 35,000 | $10,447,866 | |
| 2026-03-26 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | Director | 1,469 | $437,101 | |
| 2026-03-17 | MARCUS JONATHAN L | General Counsel | 3,291 | $1,097,121 | |
| 2026-03-17 | MARCUS JONATHAN L | Officer | 3,291 | $1,031,301 | |
| 2026-03-13 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | Chief Executive Officer | 62,902 | $19,587,683 | |
| 2026-03-13 | VROMAN KENDAL L | Officer | 7,076 | $2,203,466 | |
| 2026-03-13 | PIELL HILDA HARRIS | Officer | 7,076 | $2,203,466 | |
| 2026-03-13 | FITZPATRICK LYNNE | Chief Executive Officer | 5,504 | $1,713,946 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jun2026 | John McGuire | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 16 Jun2026 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 16 Jun2026 | Matt Van Epps | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| 15 May2026 | David Taylor | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 15 May2026 | David Taylor | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $281.12 | -6.7% | $1.30 | $938 | -6.2% |
| 2 months | $293.78 | -10.7% | $1.30 | $897 | -10.3% |
| 3 months | $309.58 | -15.3% | $1.30 | $851 | -14.9% |
| 6 months | $263.46 | -0.4% | $10.00 | $1,034 | +3.4% |
| 1 year | $256.14 | +2.4% | $11.25 | $1,068 | +6.8% |
| 2 years | $182.83 | +43.5% | $21.85 | $1,554 | +55.4% |
| 3 years | $162.54 | +61.4% | $31.60 | $1,808 | +80.8% |
| 5 years | $173.83 | +50.9% | $47.35 | $1,781 | +78.1% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.