Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.78, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price303.14 USD
Fair value263.48
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markup264.48+14.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-02Read Distribution264.48+14.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup257.40+17.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CME Group holds its Markup at $303.14. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$303.14
Valuation
24.30 trailing · 22.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
CME does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today CME does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $263.48 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 13.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $263.48, with a range of $204.30 to $303.00, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
CME clears trades but fails ethics test
Every futures bet on crops, rates or energy clears through CME's exchange, giving it a steady slice of global trading flows. We pass because the business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds. That screen exists to keep certain models out, regardless of how the numbers read on paper.
Revenue rises 14% while the profit margin hits 63% and return on equity reaches 16%. The forward multiple sits at 19 times and price trades above our fair value of 238.86 dollars, leaving a negative margin of safety. A moderate moat offers some durability yet does not offset the ethical block.
Fifteen analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target near 285 dollars. We still step aside. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CME trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup$289.46+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306.
2026-10-21Markup$289.46+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markup$289.46+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markup$289.46+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markup$289.46+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markup$289.46+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markup$289.46+3.2%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markup$280.56+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markup$280.56+6.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$264.48+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
