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The Screen · Financials · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CME Group
CME · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $100.0B · 3,875 employees
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
278.23 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
CME Group holds its Markup at $278.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$278.23
Valuation
23.60 trailing · 21.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $237.22 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 0.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
CME clears trades but fails ethics test
Every futures bet on crops, rates or energy clears through CME's exchange, giving it a steady slice of global trading flows. We pass because the business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds. That screen exists to keep certain models out, regardless of how the numbers read on paper.
Revenue rises 14% while the profit margin hits 63% and return on equity reaches 16%. The forward multiple sits at 19 times and price trades above our fair value of 238.86 dollars, leaving a negative margin of safety. A moderate moat offers some durability yet does not offset the ethical block.
Fifteen analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target near 285 dollars. We still step aside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CME trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup$270.87+10.5%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306.
2026-07-22Markup$245.05+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$245.05+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$245.05+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$245.05-4.8%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$257.40+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$257.40+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$257.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $306. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$257.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$257.40Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
