The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Moody's Corporation MCO
Outside both standardsAn entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
read at $471.50
Moody's Corporation holds its Markup at $471.50.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days |
| Price | $471.50 |
| Valuation | 29.90 trailing · 25.04 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 1.34 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $423.73 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 15.10% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
| Revenue growth | 15.10% |
| Profit margin | 34.25% |
| Debt to equity | 237.59 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 21 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Business activity: Financials sector Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Ratings Giant Trips Over Its Own Ethics Test
Every bond, loan and pension fund leans on Moody's stamps to judge risk. Yet the firm fails our ethical screen on business activity, so we pass regardless of the numbers.
The business itself looks solid, with 32 percent profit margins, 71 percent ROE and steady 8 percent revenue growth. Still, the shares sit at 27.4 times forward earnings, 19 percent above our fair value of 414.88 while the price is 510.86.
Analysts may cluster around a 550 target and call the moat strong, but the ethical fail is non-negotiable. That single line keeps us away. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 25.0x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 29.9x a premium valuation |
| Revenue growth | 15.1% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 34.3% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Return on equity | 76.9% an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 2.38 heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens |
| Current ratio | 1.19 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 1.34 moves a little more than the market |
| Market cap | $82.4B |
| Employees | 16,000 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on MCO
- › San Antonio to Borrow $944 Million for Major Airport Expansion Bloomberg · 16d ago
- › Apple upgraded, Brinker initiated: Wall Street's top analyst calls The Fly · 16d ago
- › Is KeyCorp’s (KEY) Latest Dividend and Moody’s Upgrade Reframing Its Capital Return Narrative? Simply Wall St. · 16d ago
- › Moody's (MCO) Partners With Intapp To Put Risk Data Inside AI Workflows Simply Wall St. · 17d ago
- › Oracle Risks Falling Behind in AI Race as Spending Binge Bites Bloomberg · 17d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in MCO's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MCO trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $536. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | 1,167 | $163,410 | |
| 2026-05-01 | STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | 158 | $73,690 | |
| 2026-05-01 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | 1,467 | $684,194 | |
| 2026-04-01 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | 1,167 | $163,410 | |
| 2026-04-01 | STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | 158 | $69,168 | |
| 2026-04-01 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | 1,467 | $642,209 | |
| 2026-03-16 | SAWICKI LISA P. | Director | 528 | · | |
| 2026-03-13 | BERMUDEZ JORGE A | Director | 21 | · | |
| 2026-03-13 | VAN SAUN BRUCE W | Director | 26 | · | |
| 2026-03-13 | FORLENZA VINCENT A | Director | 22 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | Sale | 1K–15K |
| 2026-04-13 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | Sale | 1K–15K |
| 15 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 14 May2026 | Thomas Kean Jr | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 1 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $447.32 | +0.8% | $1.03 | $1,010 | +1.0% |
| 2 months | $426.39 | +5.7% | $1.03 | $1,060 | +6.0% |
| 3 months | $425.45 | +6.0% | $1.03 | $1,062 | +6.2% |
| 6 months | $483.31 | -6.7% | $2.06 | $937 | -6.3% |
| 1 year | $481.00 | -6.3% | $3.94 | $945 | -5.5% |
| 2 years | $395.58 | +14.0% | $7.52 | $1,159 | +15.9% |
| 3 years | $327.35 | +37.7% | $10.76 | $1,410 | +41.0% |
| 5 years | $330.50 | +36.4% | $16.34 | $1,413 | +41.3% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.