Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.71, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price183.81 USD
Fair value116.05
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markdown183.81+0.0% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% rise in 8 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markup172.35+6.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown152.40+20.6% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Coinbase holds its Markdown at $183.81. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$183.81
Valuation
N/A trailing · 61.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
3.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Coinbase does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when COIN's ethical verdict changes
Today COIN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $116.05 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 36.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 33 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Crypto platform fails value and ethics tests
Picture a trader in New York checking crypto balances after the latest price swing. Coinbase sits at the centre of that flow, yet the numbers tell a cooler story than the hype.
We pass for clear reasons. Shares trade at 33 times forward earnings while revenue fell 31 percent, profit margins sit at 13 percent and return on equity is just 7 percent. On top of that the stock sits 10 percent above our fair value and the ethical screen flags the core business activity.
The consensus buy rating and 212 dollar median target ignore both the thin returns and the ethical red line. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COIN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$183.81+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$183.81+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$183.81+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$183.81+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$183.81+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$183.81+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown · changed$183.81+2.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markup$179.39-8.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup$195.11+13.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$172.35+9.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
