The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Ameren
AEE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $29.4B · 8,913 employees
Ameren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
106.25 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Ameren holds its Markdown at $106.25. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$106.25
Valuation
18.71 trailing · 18.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.40%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.47%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $87.85 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 17.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady utility but debt and price block the way
Utilities are sold as the calm option when markets turn choppy, yet Ameren sits 17 percent above our fair value at 111 dollars versus 93. Forward earnings sit at 19 times while revenue edges up just 4 percent a year and return on equity reaches only 12 percent. That combination leaves little margin for the surprises that always hit regulated networks.
The moderate moat and 18 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, but they do not offset the stretched valuation or the fact that fifteen analysts still push a 121 dollar target. We pass because the numbers simply do not line up with the price on offer.
On top of the valuation gap the company fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio. That screen exists for a reason and we follow it. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Markdown · changed$108.95-2.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-20Markup$111.55+2.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-18Markup$109.27+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-16Markup$109.27+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-03Markup$109.27+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$109.27Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
