Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Automatic Data Processing holds its Distribution at $267.96. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$267.96
Valuation
24.49 trailing · 20.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.2
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.99%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.43%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.98%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.55%
Below 5%
Only 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $277.48 fair value, strong competitive moat, 6.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payroll Giant with a Cloudy Future
Think about every time a company cuts a paycheck, the software they use could be ADP's. This tech giant operates in the HCM space, providing cloud-based services for the payroll process. It's like the invisible hand that guides the financial pulse of businesses around the globe. Why it stands out is its strong moat, solid profit margins, and ROE that soars to 72%, a testament to its operational efficiency and dominance in its niche.
However, the market is pricing ADP with a forward P/E of 20.8x, just slightly higher than our fair value estimate of $276.98, which suggests a slim overvaluation of -1%. Revenues are growing at a healthy 7% clip, but with a consensus hold rating from analysts and a median target price slightly above the current market price, the bullish momentum seems to be ebbing. Risk lies in the fact that despite its strong position, being overvalued could mean that any misstep in its cloud transition or competition could hit the stock price hard.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$279.21+11.6%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
2026-07-28Markup$250.09+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$250.09+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$250.09+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$250.09-2.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$255.27+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$255.27+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$255.27+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$255.27+10.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
2026-07-18Markup$231.95+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.