Earnings Preview · 29 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $7.03 a share on revenue near $20.7B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $32.59 of earnings per share against $23.23 over the last twelve, growth of about 40%. The median analyst target is $968 (range $575 to $1155), 51% above the $640.35 share price, across 26 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.6% in the five sessions after the print and +0.8% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -1.4%; after a miss, +5.3%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 98% prices a one-week move of roughly ±13.5% (about $553.80 to $726.90). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $640 and the heaviest call open interest at $800; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $640.35 the shares sit 40% below the 52-week high of $1073.46 and 26% above the low of $510.21 (23% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $799.74, above the price. The 200-day average is $749.67, above the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 21% below our fair-value estimate: a modest cushion. Our fair-value estimate is $809.64 against the current share price of $640.35. The shares trade at 32.2 times trailing earnings and 23.0 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 24% with net margins near 15%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.08, five-day price change -3.6%, as of 2026-10-28, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
