Earnings Preview · 14 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $1.10 a share on revenue near $30.5B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $5.29 of earnings per share against $4.33 over the last twelve, growth of about 22%. The median analyst target is $68 (range $62 to $76), 32% above the $51.38 share price, across 21 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 24 reports, the shares moved an average of -0.2% in the five sessions after the print and +1.6% over twenty. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 48% prices a one-week move of roughly ±6.7% (about $47.96 to $54.80). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $55 and the heaviest call open interest at $56; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after. Max pain for the nearest expiry is $55.
Levels that matter
At $51.38 the shares sit 21% below the 52-week high of $65.23 and 11% above the low of $46.12 (28% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
Our fair-value work puts the shares about 30% below what the business is worth: value on offer. Our fair-value estimate is $73.66 against the current share price of $51.38. The shares trade at 13.1 times trailing earnings and 10.7 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 17% with net margins near 30%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.05, five-day price change +1.1%, as of 2026-10-12, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
