Earnings Preview · 14 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $3.68 a share on revenue near $4.0B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $15.32 of earnings per share against $11.33 over the last twelve, growth of about 35%. The median analyst target is $200 (range $150 to $215), 26% above the $158.68 share price, across 14 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 24 reports, the shares moved an average of +2.8% in the five sessions after the print and +5.0% over twenty. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
Levels that matter
At $158.68 the shares sit 19% below the 52-week high of $195.93 and 52% above the low of $104.64 (59% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
Our fair-value work puts the shares about 26% below what the business is worth: value on offer. Our fair-value estimate is $214.93 against the current share price of $158.68. The shares trade at 15.9 times trailing earnings and 11.7 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 18% with net margins near 23%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.14, five-day price change -0.6%, as of 2026-10-09, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
