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NAS100 28,959 −2.90% S&P 7,663 −1.21% GOLD $4,040 −2.66% BTC $81,391 −3.12% VIX 19.03 +14.09% live tape · as of 22:08 UTC · 22 Oct
Vol. II · No. 296Friday, 23 October 2026
TTitan Protect
Case Studies · Earnings Echo

Why We’re Passing on Union Pacific Despite the Beat.

Filed Friday 23 October 2026 · 23:43 UTC · Entry no. 131399 · scored against the close · never edited

Why We’re Passing on Union Pacific Despite the Beat.
Earnings Review · 22 October 2026
The print
Revenue $6.86B. EPS $3.53 vs $3.48 expected.
What changed versus going in
Earnings came in at $3.53 a share against $3.48 expected, a beat of 1% (+$0.05 a share). Revenue of $6.86B compares with $7.10B expected, 3.3% below consensus.
Did the flow confirm the move?
Underlying money flow reads as accumulation (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.18, five-day price change +1.9%, as of 2026-10-20, desk flow model).
Give the business its due
The business itself is genuinely strong: revenue growing about 12%, net margins near 29%, a strong competitive moat, backed by a 40% return on equity.
Levels that matter
At $287.61 the shares sit 9% below the 52-week high of $315.99 and 33% above the low of $215.53 (72% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $288.01, above the price. The 200-day average is $259.20, below the price.
The valuation lens
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (+1% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Fair value lands near $292 against a $288.71 share price, a margin of safety of about 1%. The trailing multiple sits around 23 times earnings, which only makes sense if the growth holds.
The ethical lens, our differentiator
The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.
The compliant alternative
If the theme is what draws you, Alstom SA (ALO.PA) sits in the same industry (Railroads) and clears our principled screen, the place to look instead of chasing a name that does not.
The verdict for a values-conscious investor
A beat-and-raise does not change the screen. This is a great company you can admire without owning, protection first. One quarter, strong or soft, does not decide whether a holding is suitable.

This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.

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