The Screen · Communication Services · Entertainment
Warner Music Group Corp
WMG · USD · Market cap $15.5B · 5,500 employees
Warner Music Group Corp.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
29.55 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-03
Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Warner Music Group Corp holds its Markup at $29.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$29.55
Valuation
23.64 trailing · 15.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Streaming royalties still leave labels exposed
Every time a listener streams a hit on Spotify or a creator licenses a track for a reel, Warner Music takes a slice through its recorded music and publishing arms. The business shows real momentum with 17% revenue growth and 51% ROE, yet we pass despite the 45% gap to our fair value. A narrow moat means platform deals and artist mobility can shift cash flows quickly.
The 6% profit margin underlines how little of that top-line growth reaches the bottom line once marketing and royalty splits are paid. At 14.5 times forward earnings the valuation looks reasonable on paper, but any slowdown in streaming or loss of key catalogues would compress returns fast.
Seventeen analysts carry a buy rating with a 39 dollar median target and the name clears our ethical screen, yet the opportunity rating remains none. Analysis, not advice.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-18Markup$28.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-03Markup$28.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$28.46Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
