Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.89, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price33.22 USD
Fair value40.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation26.51+25.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-11Read Markdown26.33+26.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution27.31+21.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-13Read Markup29.70+11.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc holds its Accumulation at $33.22. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$33.22
Valuation
10.97 trailing · 8.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.81%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Sirius XM's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today SIRI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $40.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $40.00, with a range of $40.00 to $66.80, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 1%-growth business trading at just 8.2x forward earnings, with a weak competitive moat. That is a 17% discount to our $40.00 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 13 analysts rate it Hold with a $32.00 average target.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SIRI trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$33.40+21.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 21.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-10-29Accumulation$27.42+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$27.42+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$27.42+3.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$26.51+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$26.51+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$26.51+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$26.51+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$26.51+0.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $28.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
