An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Liberty Live Holdings, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $98.78
Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $98.78.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price
$98.78
Valuation
N/A trailing · 53.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 90.0
Beta
0.94
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $49.39 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 35.20% revenue growth.
Read at
$98.78
N/A P/E · 53.11 fwd
Our fair value
$49.39
50% premium
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$98.78
you are here
Conservative
$49.39
-50%
Our fair value
$49.39
-50%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Revenue growth
35.20%
Profit margin
-88.24%
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 20.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Live Events Priced Like a Growth Darling
Picture a packed arena with fans cheering, yet the company behind the show is bleeding cash at an 88 percent profit margin. Liberty Live trades at 53 times forward earnings and double our fair value, despite a weak moat in a crowded live entertainment space. We pass.
Revenue growth of 35 percent looks lively on the surface, but it does not offset the losses or the steep premium to a $49 fair value against the current $98 price. The business model of promoting gigs, managing talent and selling tickets carries thin barriers that rivals can easily copy.
Cyclical swings in concert spending and the challenge of reaching consistent profits are real threats here. It clears the ethical screen, which is one small positive amid the valuation stretch. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
LLYVA trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Accumulation$90.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%.
2026-07-03Accumulation$90.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$90.61Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · LLYVA
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2024-11-21
WENDLING BRIAN J
Officer
1,094
$76,110
2024-09-30
WONG ANDREA L
Director
1,038
$50,613
2024-06-14
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
