Upbound Group, Inc., a technology and data-driven company, provides financial solutions in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
19.29 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-27
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Upbound Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $19.29. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 123 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 123 days
Price at the screen
$19.29
Valuation
12.53 trailing · 4.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 76.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +41% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rent to own financing looks cheap but risky
Every time a family in Texas needs a new sofa or tyres without the cash upfront, they end up in the rent to own lane. Upbound runs that lane through Acima and Rent A Center, offering the credit that mainstream lenders skip. The business clears our ethical screen and trades at just 4.7 times forward earnings with a 58 percent gap to our fair value estimate.
Yet the numbers tell a cautious story. Revenue is growing only 4 percent, net margins sit at 2 percent, and return on equity is a modest 12 percent. Analysts like the shares and see $28 ahead, but thin profitability and unknown competitive protection leave little room for error when consumer wallets tighten.
Low multiples on slow growing, low margin operations often signal a cyclical trap rather than a bargain. Currency moves in Mexico and shifts in US spending patterns add further pressure that the headline valuation ignores. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UPBD trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Markdown$18.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Markdown$18.94+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$18.94Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.