Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.45, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.08 USD
Fair value30.88
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation15.44+10.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 20% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-15Read Markdown19.29-11.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-15Read Distribution19.04-10.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markdown18.94-9.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Upbound Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $17.08. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 225 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 225 days
Price at the screen
$17.08
Valuation
11.12 trailing · 3.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
56.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 56.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Upbound Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 57% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when UPBD's ethical verdict changes
Today UPBD does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +60% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rent to own financing looks cheap but risky
Every time a family in Texas needs a new sofa or tyres without the cash upfront, they end up in the rent to own lane. Upbound runs that lane through Acima and Rent A Center, offering the credit that mainstream lenders skip. The business clears our ethical screen and trades at just 4.7 times forward earnings with a 58 percent gap to our fair value estimate.
Yet the numbers tell a cautious story. Revenue is growing only 4 percent, net margins sit at 2 percent, and return on equity is a modest 12 percent. Analysts like the shares and see $28 ahead, but thin profitability and unknown competitive protection leave little room for error when consumer wallets tighten.
Low multiples on slow growing, low margin operations often signal a cyclical trap rather than a bargain. Currency moves in Mexico and shifts in US spending patterns add further pressure that the headline valuation ignores. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UPBD trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$15.44+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$15.44+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$15.44+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$15.44+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$15.44+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$15.44+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$15.44+0.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-10-14Markdown$15.40-10.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-10-02Markdown$17.13-11.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.