Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Blackbaud, Inc. holds its Markup at $44.82. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$44.82
Valuation
14.01 trailing · 7.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.70%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 29.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nonprofit software trades cheap but grows slowly
Every charity gala or online donation runs through back office systems that log gifts, manage donors and send the right thank you notes. Blackbaud supplies a slice of that infrastructure to nonprofits across the United States and beyond. The business clears a 12 percent profit margin and posts an eye watering 419 percent ROE, yet revenue expands at only 4 percent a year.
We pass despite the 5.5 times forward earnings and the 93 percent gap between the 32.40 share price and our 62.50 fair value. Analyst targets sit at 50 dollars and the ethical screen is clean, but unknown competitive protection and minimal top line momentum leave little reason to step in.
Low growth at a depressed multiple often signals a business that is steadily losing ground rather than a bargain waiting to be unlocked. Currency moves or a shift in donor budgets could quickly erase the apparent discount. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BLKB trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup$44.67+37.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 37.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-23Markup · changed$32.40+16.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-18Distribution$27.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-03Distribution$27.90+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$27.90Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
