2026-10-25
Amplitude, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 04:07 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Software - Application
Amplitude, Inc.
AMPL · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.0B · 818 employees
Amplitude, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides an AI analytics platform that helps analyze customer behavior within digital products in the United States and internationally.
Not yet scored16.10 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 04:07 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price16.10 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.34)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $9.90 to $11.48, base estimate $9.98 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders insiders sold, $121,803, latest filing 2026-10-26
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.34, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price16.10 USD
Fair value9.98
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation14.76+9.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 10% rise in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Distribution13.43+19.9% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 95% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup6.89+133.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Amplitude, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $16.10. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 25 days |
| Price at the screen | $16.10 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 92.72 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.29 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 2.27% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 2.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 14.39% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 14.4% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 24.85% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 24.9% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Amplitude, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Amplitude, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 2%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $9.98 fair value estimate, 21.20% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 61.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $9.98, with a range of $9.90 to $11.48, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsAnalytics tool priced well beyond its worth
Picture a dashboard that follows every click inside an app. Amplitude sells that view to product teams, yet the business still loses a quarter of every dollar it brings in. At 71 times forward earnings with revenue growing just 17 percent, the shares sit 34 percent above our fair value. The market is paying up for a platform whose economics have yet to turn.
We pass because the numbers refuse to cooperate. Negative 35 percent return on equity and an unknown moat leave little room for error if growth slows or competition intensifies. Eleven analysts may still lean buy, but their median target barely clears the current price while the company continues to burn cash.
High multiples on unprofitable growth often compress when reality sets in. Currency moves or a single large customer loss would hurt quickly. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 92.7xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| EPS, trailing | -0.75 |
| EPS, forward | 0.17 |
| Revenue growth | +21.2%strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | -26.6%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -47.9%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | 3.54% |
| Debt to equity | 0.07minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.05adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 1.29moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 5.51 - 18.85 |
| Market cap | $2.0B |
| Employees | 818 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeAMPL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Accumulation $17.19
+2.1% Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04
Accumulation $16.84
-1.4% Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Accumulation $17.08
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $17.08
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $17.08
-2.1% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $17.44
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $17.44
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $17.44
+2.2% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 85% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $17.07
+7.8% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $15.83
+7.2% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Skates Spenser | CEO, Pres, 10% | S - Sale+OE | 6,951 | $121,803 |
| 2026-10-23 | Skates Spenser | CEO, Pres, 10% | S - Sale+OE | 107,136 | $1,876,958 |
| 2026-10-02 | Skates Spenser | CEO, Pres, 10% | S - Sale+OE | 70,087 | $1,017,684 |
| 2026-09-30 | Skates Spenser | CEO, Pres, 10% | S - Sale+OE | 4,913 | $70,997 |
| 2026-09-10 | Skates Spenser | CEO, Pres, 10% | S - Sale+OE | 185,000 | $2,275,611 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $6.36 | +9.3% | · | $1,093 | +9.3% |
| 2 months | $5.61 | +23.9% | · | $1,239 | +23.9% |
| 3 months | $7.40 | -6.1% | · | $939 | -6.1% |
| 6 months | $11.29 | -38.4% | · | $616 | -38.4% |
| 1 year | $12.65 | -45.1% | · | $549 | -45.1% |
| 2 years | $8.41 | -17.4% | · | $826 | -17.4% |
| 3 years | $10.34 | -32.8% | · | $672 | -32.8% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AMPL does next, these words stay.
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