Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.24, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.29 USD
Fair value1.67
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Markdown4.51-49.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 23% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-14Read Distribution5.85-60.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 31% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup8.50-73.1% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
T1 Energy Inc. holds its Markdown at $2.29. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$2.29
Valuation
N/A trailing · 23.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.98%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
115.33%
Below 5%
115.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
T1 Energy's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 40% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 26.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +293% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rebranded solar maker grows fast yet stays loss making
Picture a battery firm that swaps its story for solar modules and suddenly claims 232 percent revenue growth. The business now sells photovoltaic panels across the US and Norway, yet it still posts a 42 percent negative profit margin and a negative 111 percent return on equity. With a forward price to earnings ratio of 28.3 times on earnings that have not materialised, the market already prices in perfection while the company burns cash at an alarming rate.
We pass because the numbers show a high valuation attached to an unprofitable operation with no proven moat. The 12 percent gap to our fair value offers little cushion when margins remain deeply negative and return on equity signals capital destruction rather than creation. Analyst targets sit higher, but those forecasts rest on execution that has yet to appear in the reported results.
The biggest risks sit in the execution of the pivot, competition from established solar players, and the chance that rapid top line growth never converts into sustainable profits. Currency swings and supply chain issues common to the sector add further uncertainty. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$2.38-17.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 17.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-18Markdown$2.90-26.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 26.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 111% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-11Markdown$3.92-6.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 111% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-02Markdown$4.17-7.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 111% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$4.51-22.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 22.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 111% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 31.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 111% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Markup$8.50+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 111% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 459%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Markup$8.50+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$8.50Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.