TBN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.4B · 46 employees
Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia.
Not yet scored
39.83 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-01
Screened 2026-09-01 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Tamboran Resources Corporation holds its Accumulation at $39.83. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-01
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$39.83
Valuation
N/A trailing · -108.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas dreams in the outback hit ethical gaps
Picture a drilling rig out in the Northern Territory chasing shale gas that might one day reach Asian buyers. Tamboran holds stakes across several permits and analysts are excited enough to slap a strong buy label with a median target of $56. Yet the business is still loss making, carries a forward multiple of minus 58 times and shows zero profit margin plus negative return on equity, which leaves little to go on.
We pass for two clear reasons that sit outside the usual valuation debate. First, the ethical screen returns insufficient data because key financial ratios are missing, and that alone blocks any further work. Second, this is a classic cyclical exploration and production name where a low or negative multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the unknown moat adds another layer of uncertainty.
Risk sits in the usual places for this sector, from commodity price swings and development delays to the simple fact that negative earnings give no cushion if the cycle turns. The gap between the current price and the stated fair value looks attractive on the surface but does not override the data shortfalls. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TBN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-14Markup · changed$35.86-11.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markdown$40.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markdown$40.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$40.37Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
