Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.16, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price105.88 USD
Fair value88.45
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markup93.40+13.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-09-09Read Markdown97.71+8.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-09Read Distribution100.82+5.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Accumulation103.06+2.7% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Pinnacle West Capital holds its Markup at $105.88. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 568 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 568 days
Price at the screen
$105.88
Valuation
19.85 trailing · 18.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
6.16%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.95%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.34%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Pinnacle West Capital's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $88.45 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 7.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Arizona power bills do not justify the price
Every summer the air conditioners in Phoenix pull power through Pinnacle West lines. The company trades at 107 dollars while our fair value sits at 95, a 12 percent premium on a narrow moat business growing revenue 11 percent with 10 percent ROE.
We pass because the valuation offers no margin of safety at 19.3 times forward earnings and because the ethical screen flags the debt ratio. Regulated utilities rarely reward investors who overpay on both counts.
Interest rate moves and state regulators can squeeze returns quickly when leverage is already high. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PNW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$105.88+2.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$103.42+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$103.42+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$103.42+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-10-18Markup$103.42+10.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$93.40+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-10-02Markdown$93.40-4.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$97.71-3.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-18Accumulation$103.06+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
