Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.70 USD
Fair value29.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Accumulation24.75+3.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown24.00+7.1% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup23.65+8.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit holds its Accumulation at $25.70. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$25.70
Valuation
6.31 trailing · 6.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PLGO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance Name Hits Cheap Multiple But Ethics Block
Picture a Bermuda desk quoting cover on storms and shipping losses that never quite materialise the way the models expect. Pelagos trades at 6.2 times forward earnings with a 15 percent profit margin and 16 percent return on equity, yet revenue is already shrinking 7 percent and nine analysts see no upside from here. The ethical screen rules it out on sector grounds alone, so the low multiple and modest 14 percent gap to our fair value never get considered.
That leaves the usual insurance traps in plain sight. A single bad hurricane season or a run of portfolio claims can wipe out years of underwriting profit, and the declining top line suggests pricing pressure or lost business rather than a temporary dip. Currency and regulatory moves across Ireland and the UK add further swings that the headline numbers do not capture.
We therefore pass without hesitation. The valuation looks attractive only if you ignore the ethical line we draw on the entire sector. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PLGO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Bermuda). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$25.70+3.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$24.00-5.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-09-09Markup$25.32+1.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-08Markup$25.07+6.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Markup$23.65+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markup$23.65+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$23.65Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.