Nektar Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing medicines in the field of immunotherapy in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
73.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Nektar Therapeutics holds its Markdown at $73.77. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$73.77
Valuation
N/A trailing · -6.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
82.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 82.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
6.03%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
18.90%
Below 5%
18.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +104% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Nektar is chasing an immunotherapy drug through mid-stage trials, yet the business is losing money at an alarming rate. Revenue barely moves while margins sit at minus 284 percent and return on equity is minus 54 percent. Analysts still cluster around a $150 target, but the numbers show a company that burns cash faster than it can replace it.
The forward multiple looks cheap only because earnings are deeply negative. A 4 percent revenue line and unknown competitive edge leave little room for error in a field where most candidates fail. Ethical screens clear the name, yet that alone does not turn losses into profits or create a durable business.
Risk sits with clinical setbacks and ongoing dilution, both of which have already punished shareholders. The gap between price and our fair value reflects that reality rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
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The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Accumulation$73.77+8.1%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 401%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $153.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 401%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $153.
2026-07-18Markdown$59.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 401%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $153.
2026-07-03Markdown$59.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$59.38Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
