Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in N…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.65 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 14:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price15.65 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.63)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 15.65 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 14.48, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-29
Options put/call open interest 1.63, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.65 USD
Fair value14.48
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markup15.22+2.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 42% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-11Read Distribution26.44-40.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-08-11Read Markup25.91-39.6% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown24.35-35.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. holds its Markup at $15.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$15.65
Valuation
N/A trailing · 70.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
No prohibited business activity identified
Fail
Debt load
2.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.72%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.79%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.71%
Below 5%
Only 3.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: No prohibited business activity identified, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when RARE's ethical verdict changes
Today RARE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +53% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rare disease biotech offers almost no safety margin
Picture a lab racing to treat conditions so uncommon most doctors will never meet a patient. Ultragenyx fits that brief yet its numbers tell a different story. Revenue is already shrinking and losses remain enormous, so the six percent gap between price and our fair value gives almost no room for the usual setbacks that hit drug developers.
The forward multiple sits at nineteen times earnings while margins sit at minus ninety one percent. That combination leaves little room for execution slips or delays in approvals. Analyst price targets sit far higher, but our reading stays flat because the business shows no durable edge and growth has turned negative.
High cash burn in early stage biotech always carries the risk of dilution or failed trials, and here the thin valuation cushion offers scant protection if either arrives. Ethical screens clear but opportunity does not.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RARE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$15.65-1.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$15.92+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$15.92+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$15.92+6.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-18Markup$14.90-2.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$15.22+4.9%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-10-02Distribution$14.51-45.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 45.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-08-11Markup · changed$25.91+6.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Markdown$24.35+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
