Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.35, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.54 USD
Fair value7.92
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Accumulation14.72+5.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown16.28-4.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-09-06Read Markup16.93-8.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Distribution15.85-2.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NGL Energy Partners LP holds its Accumulation at $15.54. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 189 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 189 days
Price at the screen
$15.54
Valuation
N/A trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
147.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 147.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NGL Energy Partners LP's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 147% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-30. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NGL's ethical verdict changes
Today NGL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 51.4% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Midstream energy bet that looks cheap but isn't
Picture a trucker loading barrels at a shale site, only to watch prices swing 50% in a year while the partnership carries a mountain of debt just to keep the pipes flowing. NGL Energy Partners shows revenue sliding 13%, negative profit margins and an ROE of minus 52%, yet trades at 17.8 times forward earnings against a fair value half its current price. The moderate moat cannot offset the ethical screen failure on leverage or the fact this is a classic cyclical value trap where low multiples often signal peak earnings about to roll over.
We pass because the combination of high debt, shrinking volumes and an overvalued multiple leaves no margin of safety, regardless of any short-term energy price spike. Investors chasing the headline yield or apparent cheapness usually discover the trap when the cycle turns and cash flow evaporates faster than the balance sheet can handle.
Risk sits in the leverage and energy price exposure, both of which the numbers already flag as unsustainable. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NGL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Accumulation$15.54+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$15.54+5.6%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$14.72+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$14.72+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%.
2026-10-18Markdown$14.72-9.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$16.28-3.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%.
2026-09-06Markup · changed$16.93+6.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%.
2026-07-18Markup$15.22+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 295%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
