Screened 2026-07-24 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Netflix holds its Markdown at $70.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days
Price at the screen
$70.09
Valuation
22.04 trailing · 18.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 84.2
Beta
1.52
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.01%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.05%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.90%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.38%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $88.99 fair value, strong competitive moat, 13.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 45 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Netflix pricing already prices in every hit
Picture the queue outside a cinema on opening night, everyone certain the next blockbuster will keep the tills ringing. Netflix has built exactly that habit worldwide, turning 13% revenue growth and 28% profit margins into a 50% ROE machine with a genuinely strong moat. Yet the shares sit at $68.95 against our $92.01 fair value, and the opportunity rating flags the name as overvalued.
We pass because the forward multiple of 18.1x already bakes in the consensus $100 target and every new series or game still to launch. A business this good deserves a premium, yet not one that leaves a 33% cushion the wrong way round once growth settles closer to mature-market norms.
The honest risk is simple: any slowdown in subscriber adds or a fresh round of content cost inflation would expose just how little room the price leaves for disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
NFLX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-18Markdown$82.18+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (44 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $115. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-16Markdown$82.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (44 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $115. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$82.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$82.18Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
