Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.38, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price173.44 USD
Fair value118.59
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation172.51+0.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-18Read Markdown172.51+0.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation171.89+0.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-04Read Markdown181.82-4.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 14% rise in 9 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Live Nation Entertainment holds its Accumulation at $173.44. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$173.44
Valuation
N/A trailing · 89.27 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
39.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 39.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.60%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Live Nation Entertainment's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $118.59 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 9.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Crowds Pack Arenas But Numbers Tell Another Story
Picture a packed stadium roaring for the headliner. The energy feels unstoppable, yet Live Nation trades at 83 times forward earnings with zero profit margins and a weak moat. We pass because the price sits 37 percent above our fair value while the business fails our ethical screen on debt levels.
Revenue grows at 12 percent but that expansion brings no bottom-line improvement and returns on equity stay modest at 15 percent. Analysts still push a buy rating with a 190 dollar median target, yet the valuation leaves no margin for the thin margins and heavy leverage already in place.
Entertainment spending can swing hard with recessions and touring cycles, so peak earnings often mask the real durability. Debt remains the clearest red flag on the ethical check. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LYV trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$173.44+0.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$172.51+0.4%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-10-02Markdown$171.89-5.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$181.82+1.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-08-05Markup$179.40+12.1%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-18Markup$160.07+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-03Markup$160.07+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$160.07Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
