2026-10-25
Liberty Media clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC · 6 Nov
The Screen · Communication Services · Entertainment
Liberty Media Corp
FWONA · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $25.3B
Formula One Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the motorsports business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and internationally.
Not yet scored101.01 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · 6 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price101.01 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 6 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.00)
- Last reviewed6 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $81.49 to $93.71, base estimate $81.49 (screen dated 2026-11-06).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price101.01 USD
Fair value81.49
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markdown91.03+11.0% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% rise in 4 days
2026-11-01Read Markup85.13+18.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-25Read Markdown82.23+22.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-18Read Distribution83.32+21.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 7 days
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Liberty Media Corp holds its Markup at $101.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 150 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 150 days |
| Price at the screen | $101.01 |
| Valuation | 123.18 trailing · 41.95 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.68 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 33.12% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 33.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 7.60% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 7.6% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Liberty Media clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Liberty Media clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 33%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $81.49 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 24.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $81.49, with a range of $81.49 to $93.71, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsFormula One glamour hides a rich valuation
The roar of Formula One cars draws millions, yet the economics behind the rights look stretched at current prices. Liberty trades at 93.88 against our fair value of 79.86, a negative margin of safety, on a forward multiple of 38 times while delivering just 6 percent profit margins and 3 percent return on equity despite 18 percent revenue growth and a narrow moat.
We pass because the numbers do not support the premium. Low returns on capital and a narrow competitive edge leave little room for error if growth slows or costs rise, even with an ethical screen that clears.
Analyst targets sit higher at 108, but history shows entertainment assets can re-rate quickly when viewer trends or sponsorships shift. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 41.9xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| Trailing P/E | 123.2xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.82 |
| EPS, forward | 2.41 |
| Revenue growth | -30.4%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 9.4%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 3.1%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 3.19% |
| Debt to equity | 0.59moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.27adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.68steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.05% |
| 52-week range | 73.70 - 102.00 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $25.3B |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeFWONA trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markdown · changed $91.03
+3.6% Entry 17
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04
Markup $87.84
+3.2% Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Markup $85.13
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Markup $85.13
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Markup · changed $85.13
+3.5% Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Markdown $82.23
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Markdown $82.23
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Markdown $82.23
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markdown · changed $82.23
-1.3% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108.
2026-10-18
Distribution · changed $83.32
-5.6% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $108.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $85.07 | -3.5% | · | $965 | -3.5% |
| 2 months | $81.58 | +0.6% | · | $1,006 | +0.6% |
| 3 months | $77.50 | +5.9% | · | $1,059 | +5.9% |
| 6 months | $86.66 | -5.3% | · | $947 | -5.3% |
| 1 year | $88.58 | -7.3% | · | $927 | -7.3% |
| 2 years | $65.40 | +25.5% | · | $1,255 | +25.5% |
| 3 years | $64.91 | +26.5% | · | $1,265 | +26.5% |
| 5 years | $39.56 | +107.5% | · | $2,075 | +107.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever FWONA does next, these words stay.
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