Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price97.70 USD
Fair value119.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Markdown93.46+4.5% to today
2026-08-05Read Markup95.19+2.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation84.49+15.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MetLife holds its Markdown at $97.70. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$97.70
Valuation
18.72 trailing · 8.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
MetLife does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $119.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 10.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance Premiums Meet an Ethical Wall
Every month families hand over premiums hoping for security when illness or loss hits. MetLife sits at the centre of that promise across the US, Asia and Latin America, yet it fails our ethical screen on business activity grounds. That single failure overrides the surface appeal of an 8.5 times forward earnings multiple and a modest 12 percent gap to our fair value estimate.
Revenue is creeping forward at just 3 percent, margins sit at 5 percent and return on equity reaches only 13 percent. The moat is rated weak. Sixteen analysts still lean buy with a 102 dollar median target, but we pass because the ethical breach is clear and the growth profile offers little compensation for it.
Valuation multiples can compress further if claims or investment returns disappoint, and the ethical flag removes any margin for error. The low multiple reflects limited growth rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MET trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$97.70+4.5%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $106.
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$93.46-1.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$95.19+12.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-18Accumulation$84.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-03Accumulation$84.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$84.49Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
