Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price113.72 USD
Fair value91.94
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown113.72+0.0% to today
2026-09-21Read Accumulation115.16-1.3% to today
2026-08-20Read Distribution125.56-9.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation118.24-3.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Aflac holds its Markdown at $113.72. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 322 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 322 days
Price at the screen
$113.72
Valuation
12.27 trailing · 15.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Aflac does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $91.94 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aflac Trips the Ethical Screen Despite Solid Numbers
Picture a policyholder in Osaka or Atlanta filing a cancer claim and the payout arrives on time. Aflac has built a decent franchise in supplemental health cover across Japan and the US, with revenue up 28 percent, a 26 percent profit margin and 16 percent ROE. The business carries a moderate moat and trades at 16.5 times forward earnings.
We pass because the stock fails our business activity screen outright. It also sits 8 percent above our fair value of 115 dollars at the current 124.72 dollars, with analysts clustered around a 117 dollar hold target. Strong cash generation does not offset the ethical red flag.
The main risk is that the ethical issue stays unresolved while the shares remain expensive relative to our calculation. Insurance can look steady until a regulatory or reputational shock hits the premium flow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AFL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$113.72-1.3%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $119.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $119.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-20Accumulation$124.72+5.5%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-18Accumulation$118.24+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-16Accumulation$118.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-03Accumulation$118.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$118.24Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
