Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.28 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 06:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price12.28 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 12.28 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 8.21, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.28 USD
Fair value8.21
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown15.48-20.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Accumulation18.18-32.5% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-05Read Markup17.32-29.1% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 24% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown13.93-11.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mesoblast Limited holds its Markdown at $12.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 266 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 266 days
Price at the screen
$12.28
Valuation
N/A trailing · 27.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.18%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
20.67%
Below 5%
20.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mesoblast clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 21% of its income right now is non-operating interest income, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MESO's ethical verdict changes
Today MESO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +201% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regenerative Hopes Clash With Persistent Losses
Picture a lab racing to turn specialised cells into treatments for conditions that still lack real options. Mesoblast is attempting exactly that through its regenerative platform across Australia, the US and other markets. The business has delivered explosive revenue growth, yet it remains deeply unprofitable with margins at minus 144 percent and return on equity at minus 18 percent.
This is why we pass. Forward earnings sit at a negative 288 times, signalling the company is still years from consistent profits despite analyst price targets near twice the current level. No clear moat appears and the opportunity rating stays at none, so the headline numbers do not translate into a durable investment case even after an ethical screen pass.
Risks centre on typical biotech execution, possible dilution and regulatory setbacks in multiple jurisdictions. Currency swings add another layer of volatility for an Australian firm with global reach. The gap between promise and cash generation remains wide. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MESO trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$12.55-9.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-18Markdown$13.90-10.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$15.48-14.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$17.32+24.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markdown$13.93+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Markdown$13.93+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$13.93Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
