Mesoblast Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development of regenerative medicine products in Australia, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
18.18 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-27
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Mesoblast Limited holds its Distribution at $18.18. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 196 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 196 days
Price at the screen
$18.18
Valuation
N/A trailing · 46.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.18%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
20.67%
Below 5%
20.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +104% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regenerative Hopes Clash With Persistent Losses
Picture a lab racing to turn specialised cells into treatments for conditions that still lack real options. Mesoblast is attempting exactly that through its regenerative platform across Australia, the US and other markets. The business has delivered explosive revenue growth, yet it remains deeply unprofitable with margins at minus 144 percent and return on equity at minus 18 percent.
This is why we pass. Forward earnings sit at a negative 288 times, signalling the company is still years from consistent profits despite analyst price targets near twice the current level. No clear moat appears and the opportunity rating stays at none, so the headline numbers do not translate into a durable investment case even after an ethical screen pass.
Risks centre on typical biotech execution, possible dilution and regulatory setbacks in multiple jurisdictions. Currency swings add another layer of volatility for an Australian firm with global reach. The gap between promise and cash generation remains wide. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MESO trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$17.32+24.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markdown$13.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Markdown$13.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$13.93Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
