MDLZ · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $78.7B · 91,000 employees
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Mondelez International holds its Accumulation at $61.63. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$61.63
Valuation
22.58 trailing · 18.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.9
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.93%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.82%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for Cadbury and other brand operations in Israel. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $68.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 4.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Familiar Snacks Fail to Clear Valuation Bar
Walk down any supermarket aisle and Mondelez products sit on the shelves in dozens of countries. The business sells biscuits, chocolate and baked snacks at scale, yet growth sits at just 8% while margins remain stuck at 7% and returns on equity reach only 10%.
We pass because the numbers do not justify ownership. Shares trade at 18.1 times forward earnings with a narrow moat and only an 11% margin of safety to our fair value. Analyst targets cluster near 68 yet the modest profitability and limited pricing power leave little room for error if costs rise or volumes soften.
Consumer staples can still face input inflation and shifting tastes toward healthier options. A defensive label does not remove those pressures when returns stay this ordinary. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MDLZ trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markdown · changed$64.14+6.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-28Accumulation$60.52+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Accumulation$60.52+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Accumulation$60.52+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Accumulation$60.52-0.8%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$61.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Accumulation$61.00+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Accumulation$61.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$61.00-1.7%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$62.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
