Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.08, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price54.53 USD
Fair value62.66
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown58.00-6.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 14% slide in 8 weeks
2026-08-05Read Markup67.08-18.7% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Markdown67.70-19.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Moelis & Company holds its Markdown at $54.53. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 330 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 330 days
Price at the screen
$54.53
Valuation
18.49 trailing · 13.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Moelis & does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MC's ethical verdict changes
Today MC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Advisory fees look tempting until ethics bite
Picture a banker in New York closing a merger that moves billions across borders. The fees land quickly, yet the whole sector sits on our prohibited list because financial services carry risks we will not touch.
We pass for the clearest reason: the ethical screen fails outright on industry grounds. Revenue growth sits at just 4 percent, the forward multiple is 17.3 times, and the shares already trade above our fair value with almost no margin of safety. High return on equity of 42 percent cannot override that hard stop.
The business remains exposed to deal cycles that can flatten fast, and analyst targets offer little comfort when the core objection is ethical. A hold consensus does not change the screen result.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$53.07+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-10-21Markdown$53.07-7.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-10-14Markdown$57.08-1.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$58.00-15.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-09-05Markup$68.50+2.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$67.08-0.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Markdown$67.70+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markdown$67.70+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$67.70Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
