An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Moelis & Company operates as an investment banking advisory company in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $67.51
Moelis & Company holds its Accumulation at $67.51.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 262 days
Price
$67.51
Valuation
24.28 trailing · 17.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.85
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$67.51
24.28 P/E · 17.26 fwd
Our fair value
$64.58
4% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$70.50
+4% to current
Target low $60.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $86.00
▲ current $67.51 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$67.51
you are here
Conservative
$54.00
-20%
Analyst avg
$70.50
+4%
Our fair value
$64.58
-4%
Analyst high
$86.00
+27%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
4.30%
Profit margin
14.46%
Debt to equity
42.94
Analyst consensus
Hold · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited keyword in sector/industry: financial servicesFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Advisory fees look tempting until ethics bite
Picture a banker in New York closing a merger that moves billions across borders. The fees land quickly, yet the whole sector sits on our prohibited list because financial services carry risks we will not touch.
We pass for the clearest reason: the ethical screen fails outright on industry grounds. Revenue growth sits at just 4 percent, the forward multiple is 17.3 times, and the shares already trade above our fair value with almost no margin of safety. High return on equity of 42 percent cannot override that hard stop.
The business remains exposed to deal cycles that can flatten fast, and analyst targets offer little comfort when the core objection is ethical. A hold consensus does not change the screen result.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MC trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$67.70+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markdown$67.70+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$67.70Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming MC
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 May2026
Mike Kelly
Republican
sell
1K–15K
6 May2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
50K–100K
30 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
27 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
2026-04-15
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
Purchase
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$63.85
+5.1%
$0.65
$1,061
+6.1%
2 months
$62.41
+7.5%
$0.65
$1,086
+8.6%
3 months
$50.87
+31.9%
$0.65
$1,332
+33.2%
6 months
$69.58
-3.6%
$1.30
$983
-1.7%
1 year
$55.54
+20.8%
$2.60
$1,255
+25.5%
2 years
$48.79
+37.5%
$5.10
$1,480
+48.0%
3 years
$37.94
+76.9%
$7.50
$1,966
+96.6%
5 years
$41.93
+60.0%
$14.80
$1,953
+95.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MC does next, these words stay.
Moelis & Company · MC · Accumulation · $67.51
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
