Screened 2026-07-19 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Kirby Corporation holds its Markdown at $144.16. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 124 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 124 days
Price at the screen
$144.16
Valuation
22.18 trailing · 17.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
River barges sail into a cyclical trap
Picture a fleet of tank barges hauling chemicals and fuels up and down the Mississippi. Demand rises and falls with energy prices and US industrial output, so earnings swing hard from one year to the next. Kirby sits right in that lane, yet its shares trade at 17.4 times forward earnings while our fair value sits 17 percent below the current price.
Revenue is growing at a modest 7 percent and margins sit at 11 percent with an 11 percent return on equity, numbers that look ordinary once the cycle turns. The market's strong-buy chorus and 170 dollar median target ignore how peak earnings often arrive with the highest multiples. We see no margin of safety here and therefore pass.
Cyclical businesses rarely reward buyers who pay up when volumes look strong. Currency moves, fuel costs and regulatory shifts on the waterways add further volatility that a single-digit profit margin cannot easily absorb. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KEX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-18Markdown$143.42+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-03Markdown$143.42+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$143.42Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
