Screened 2026-08-25 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
JD.com Inc ADR holds its Markdown at $29.36. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$29.36
Valuation
19.57 trailing · 6.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.90%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.69%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 66.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 35 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China shopper clicks buy but the numbers stay flat
Picture a warehouse worker in Shanghai scanning another parcel. JD moves the goods, yet revenue creeps ahead at just 5 percent while margins sit at 1 percent and return on equity barely clears 6 percent. The shares trade at 7 times forward earnings with a narrow moat, so the wide gap to our fair value does not translate into an opportunity.
We therefore pass. Low multiples in consumer cyclical retail often mask peak-cycle earnings that compress when growth slows or competition intensifies. Analyst targets sit well below fair value and offer no cushion once those pressures appear.
China policy and currency swings add another layer of uncertainty that the balance sheet does not offset. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JD trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$29.36-5.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Distribution$28.56+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Distribution$28.56+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$28.56Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
