Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.27, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price26.91 USD
Fair value49.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-02Read Markdown29.36-8.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-03Read Accumulation30.95-13.1% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after an 8% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution28.56-5.8% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
JD.com Inc ADR holds its Markdown at $26.91. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 37 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 37 days
Price at the screen
$26.91
Valuation
18.19 trailing · 6.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.90%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.69%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
JD.com clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 15%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when JD's ethical verdict changes
Today JD passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 45% discount to our $49.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $49.00, with a range of $49.00 to $53.82, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China shopper clicks buy but the numbers stay flat
Picture a warehouse worker in Shanghai scanning another parcel. JD moves the goods, yet revenue creeps ahead at just 5 percent while margins sit at 1 percent and return on equity barely clears 6 percent. The shares trade at 7 times forward earnings with a narrow moat, so the wide gap to our fair value does not translate into an opportunity.
We therefore pass. Low multiples in consumer cyclical retail often mask peak-cycle earnings that compress when growth slows or competition intensifies. Analyst targets sit well below fair value and offer no cushion once those pressures appear.
China policy and currency swings add another layer of uncertainty that the balance sheet does not offset. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JD trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$26.91-1.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-28Markdown$27.39+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-21Markdown$27.39+1.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-14Markdown$27.09-0.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-02Markdown$27.28-7.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$29.36-5.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Distribution$28.56+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Distribution$28.56+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$28.56Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
