Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
MercadoLibre holds its Accumulation at $1,926.25. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$1,926.25
Valuation
52.34 trailing · 33.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.2
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE: it trades above our $1,762.64 fair value estimate, 49.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Latin America's marketplace engine keeps humming
Every time a seller in Sao Paulo ships an order or a buyer in Mexico pays with a local wallet, MercadoLibre sits underneath the transaction. The business is delivering 49% revenue growth and a 31% return on equity while clearing our ethical screen without issue.
Those numbers explain why the shares sit close to fair value despite a forward multiple of 31 times earnings. The slim negative margin of safety keeps us from calling it cheap, yet the operating momentum and clean bill on ethics still make the case worth watching.
Risk sits with the emerging-market backdrop, currency swings and a still-thin 6% profit margin that leaves little room for execution slips. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Uruguay and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MELI trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Uruguay). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markup$1,921.96+6.7%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230.
2026-08-05Markup$1,801.44+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$1,801.44+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$1,801.44+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$1,801.44+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$1,801.44+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$1,801.44+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$1,801.44-0.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$1,813.91+12.8%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $2230.
2026-07-03Distribution$1,607.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
