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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
eBay Inc.
EBAY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $46.5B · 12,300 employees
eBay Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
104.59 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
eBay Inc. holds its Accumulation at $104.59. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$104.59
Valuation
21.97 trailing · 15.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
15.71%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.39%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $133.06 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 14.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Flea Market Icon Stumbles on Heavy Debt
Picture the old online marketplace still shifting goods from living rooms to buyers worldwide. Revenue is rising 20 percent, margins sit at 18 percent and return on equity reaches 43 percent, yet the numbers do not change the verdict.
We pass because the ethical screen flags the debt ratio. A moderate moat and a 16.6 times forward multiple look reasonable on paper, but the leverage breach rules the name out regardless of the 16 percent margin of safety to our fair value.
The risk is straightforward. High debt leaves less room if retail spending slows or competition intensifies, and the hold rating from 27 analysts at a 113 dollar median target already prices in limited upside. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EBAY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $108.
2026-07-27Markup$112.06+2.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $108.
2026-07-18Markup$109.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $108.
2026-07-03Markup$109.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$109.35Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
