Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.89 USD
Fair value30.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingCLASSICAL ONLY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown19.89+0.0% to today
2026-08-03Read Markup19.54+1.8% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown16.24+22.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. holds its Markdown at $19.89. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$19.89
Valuation
N/A trailing · 6.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
122.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 122.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Jefferson Capital, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads CLASSICAL ONLY: it trades at roughly a 51% discount to our $30.00 fair value, strong competitive moat, 11.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 50.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +46% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Debt buyer with strong returns but ethical red flag
When households default on credit cards or loans, someone has to buy the unpaid balances and try to collect. Jefferson Capital does exactly that, snapping up charged-off portfolios at deep discounts and turning them into cash. The business shows real operating strength on standard measures.
Revenue rises 12 percent a year, profit margins reach 26 percent and return on equity hits 37 percent. A forward price to earnings ratio of 6.7 times leaves a 48 percent gap to our fair value of 29 dollars from the current 19.54 dollars, while five analysts carry a consensus buy rating with a 26 dollar median target. A strong moat supports the cash generation.
Yet the stock fails our ethical screen on debt ratio. Leverage in a recovery business that already profits from distressed borrowers creates added fragility that standard numbers do not capture. We pass.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JCAP trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$19.89-15.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-09-02Markup$23.65+21.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$19.54+20.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markdown$16.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markdown$16.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$16.24Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.