Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.66 USD
Fair value31.58
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-01Read Markdown38.49-4.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-01Read Accumulation38.68-5.2% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Markdown38.44-4.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. holds its Markdown at $36.66. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 455 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 455 days
Price at the screen
$36.66
Valuation
15.28 trailing · 15.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hilltop does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today HTH does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Banks with mixed segments rarely clear basic ethical screens
Picture a regional lender pulling in deposits one day and originating mortgages the next while running a broker dealer on the side. Hilltop Holdings sits in exactly that spot yet fails our ethical screen outright because the entire financial services sector is off limits. The valuation adds no comfort either with the shares trading at 38.68 against a fair value of 30.81 and revenue already shrinking 3 percent.
Forward earnings sit on a 16.1 times multiple while return on equity lingers at just 8 percent and profit margins reach only 13 percent. Three analysts call it a hold with a 40 dollar median target but none of those figures change the ethical outcome or the thin growth picture. We pass for the screen alone and the numbers give no reason to argue otherwise.
Interest rate swings and mortgage volumes remain the obvious external pressures yet the bigger issue is the permanent ethical block that stops any further work. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HTH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$36.56+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$36.56-4.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown$38.35-0.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-09-01Markdown · changed$38.49-0.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $40.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
